Influx from the SP helps the Greens to win elections

The Greens (GPS) and the Green Liberals (GLP) emerged as the big winners of the 2019 federal elections, while the four parties represented in the Federal Council, above all the SVP and SP, lost in voter strength. The Swiss Election Study Selects investigated the reasons behind these electoral shifts. The study shows that the historic electoral success of the Greens was not due to an unusually strong mobilisation of their own base, since 44 percent of those who voted for the Greens in 2015 actually no longer took part in the 2019 elections. Rather, the GPS owes its election victory to the large influx of former SP voters: around a third of the GPS voters of 2019 had voted for the SP back in 2015. In addition, the GPS scored well above average among young voters. The Greens benefited from the fact that its core issues, namely climate and environment, established themselves as the most important political problems for the electorate during the election campaign.

In the course of the climate debate, the GLP has also become more popular with voters, although the electorate considers the GLP to be considerably less committed and competent in environmental issues than the Greens. The GLP gained in support particularly among the under 35 year olds and convinced many former SP and FDP voters to switch to them. However, the GLP still has a weakly consolidated voter base. The party was able to retain just under two-thirds of its 2015 electorate and less than half of those who intended to vote for the GLP in early summer actually did so during the elections held in autumn.

SVP with mobilisation problems

The SVP suffered from the fact that its core issues, migration and asylum, virtually disappeared from public awareness in the 2019 elections. For the first time, less than half of all SVP sympathisers went to the polls. However, the SVP still holds the most stable voter base across all parties: 85 percent of those who voted for the SVP in 2015 and participated in the 2019 federal elections voted again for the SVP in 2019.
The FDP also had to struggle with mobilisation problems. Besides, the party mainly lost female voters. In contrast, the CVP was the party that best managed to mobilise its supporters. Thanks to the loyalty of its core voters, the CVP was able to maintain its electoral share reasonably well. The CVP was, however, not very attractive for first-time and floating voters.

Victory for women without women's mobilisation

In the year of the women's strike, the percentage of elected female candidates reached an all-time high. This result is, however, not a consequence of an increased mobilisation among women. In fact, in 2019 as in previous election years, women turned out less frequently than men. However, women are more willing to vote for female candidates: four out of five women, compared with 54 percent of men, said that they would prefer a female candidate to a male candidate if both candidates were equally qualified. The Candidate Survey reveals that the parties specifically promoted women in 2019. They supported their female candidates financially more strongly than their male candidates. In the media the “women’s election” only received substantial attention in mid-June on the occasion of the women’s strike, but was otherwise (unlike climate and environmental issues) not a dominant topic in media coverage or in candidates’ social media accounts.

Contact

Links

• Project in P3, the SNSF’s research database
• www.selects.ch
• www.digdemlab.io